Côte d'Ivoire

Growth stabilises at a sustained level

In 2025, as in 2024, economic growth should remain at a comfortable level, underpinned by the robustness of exports (around 25% of GDP in 2023), related to the agricultural sector and the extractive industries, but also by solid household consumption and sustained high levels of private investment spending. Hydrocarbon production and exports (15.8% of exports in 2023) are set to surge as the offshore Baleine field (Eni-Petroci consortium), with estimated reserves of 2.5 million barrels of crude oil and 3,300 billion cubic feet of natural gas, reaches its full potential, scheduled for 2028. At the same time, the recent commissioning of several gold mines and the discovery of major deposits are bolstering the sector's prospects (12.8% of exports in 2023). Rich in agricultural resources, Côte d'Ivoire will also be able to count on exports of rubber (11.2% of exports in 2023), cashew nuts (6.9%) and cocoa (31.7%), of which it is the world's leading producer. The disappointing results of the 2023-2024 cocoa season, marked by a drop in production (of around 25%) due to climatic conditions and several diseases contributed to the spectacular surge in global cocoa prices which was responsible, in April 2024, for the 50% increase in the farm-gate price set by the government, which is responsible for remunerating producers. This good news, combined with a more clement outlook for the next season’s harvest, should enable cocoa exports to rebound strongly in 2024-2025.

To support infrastructure development (electricity grid, Abidjan port and metro, Abobo hospital, etc.) as part of the National Development Plan (NDP), public investment spending (6.8% of GDP in 2023) will remain high in 2024-2025, supported by international cooperation. In addition, the private sector and private investment (18.3% of GDP in 2023) will grow over the period, consolidated by the government's concrete efforts to improve the business environment and promote the development of value chains in some fifteen sectors (fighting corruption, defending property rights, simplifying the business taxation system and credit conditions for SMEs, etc.). This development will be accompanied by a probable easing of monetary policy by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) which has maintained its main key rate at 3.5% since December 2023 after several increases in response to the slowdown in price rises over the entire period, thanks to the easing of commodity prices. Against this backdrop, household consumption (78% of GDP in 2023), which has already been boosted by the economic fallout from the African Cup of Nations (CAN) in early 2024 and revenues from cocoa, will continue to grow and drive growth in Côte d'Ivoire.

Improving public finances under the aegis of the IMF

With the support of the IMF, Côte d'Ivoire is continuing its fiscal consolidation efforts. In exchange for its commitment to raise more tax revenue (in the order of 0.5% of additional GDP per year between 2024 and 2026) and control its spending, Yamoussoukro has the support of several programmes signed with the IMF (ECF, EFF, DRF) totalling USD 4.8 billion (including $1.6 billion disbursed in September 2024), spread between May 2023 and September 2026. The abolition of several tax exemptions, the increased formalisation of the economy and the digitalisation of the administrative process will all help to broaden the tax base. At the same time, export revenues, buoyed by high gold and cocoa prices, will also help to boost government revenues (16.2% of GDP in 2023), which are still below the 20% threshold recommended by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). That said, efforts to rationalise public spending such as the reduction in certain transfers to households and state-owned enterprises will remain limited by continuing high capital expenditure to support the government's ambitious infrastructure development agenda, as well as by continuing high debt servicing payments. As a result, the public deficit is expected to narrow in 2024-2025, gradually converging towards the regional threshold of 3% of GDP. It will be financed by domestic borrowing (56% of requirements over the 2024-2026 period), non-concessional or semi-concessional borrowing from foreign partners (bilateral, multilateral and commercial banks) and also bond issues, after a long absence from the eurobond market which ended in January 2024 (USD 2.6 billion successfully issued at 6.61% over 11.3 years on a weighted average basis). Public debt as a percentage of GDP, over 60% of which is external, mainly multilateral and in the form of bonds, will increase further in 2024, before easing from 2025, in line with the public deficit and robust growth.

The current account deficit should narrow in 2024, and even more so in 2025, driven by more favourable terms of trade and progress on the trade surplus (2.6% of GDP in 2023). In closer detail, the gradual build-up of production capacity in the new offshore oil and gas field (Baleine) and sky-rocketing gold and cocoa prices will boost export revenues. While oil and gas imports will fall as a result, total imports will still remain high to meet substantial demand for capital goods for the country's industrial and infrastructure development, which is also responsible for the deterioration in the balance of services over the period (-5.7% of GDP in 2023). The primary income account (-4.1% of GDP in 2023) is also likely to remain in the red due to the repatriation of revenues from foreign companies. The overall imbalance will be financed by growing FDI inflows, mainly to the mining and hydrocarbons sectors, and by recourse to debt, all of which will contribute to the recovery of the WAEMU's foreign exchange reserves (only 3.5 months of imports at the end of 2023).

Political and social calm in the run-up to the elections

The Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix (RHDP), the party of current president Alassane Ouattara and his potential successor Robert Beugré Mambé, is in a strong position to win the next presidential elections in October 2025 and the legislative elections in 2026, following the decisive results of the municipal and regional elections in September 2023. The RHDP has maintained its domination of the political scene since 2011. The elections are expected to take place in a calmer political and social climate, in contrast to the intense post-election violence of 2020, thanks to the dialogue initiated with the opposition, followed by a few concessions (overhaul of the electoral commission, compensation for victims of political violence, etc.) from the government in power. This process of reconciliation, crowned by the successful organisation of the African Cup of Nations, won by the national team, nevertheless remains fragile, while a resumption of tensions cannot be ruled out in the run-up to the 2025 elections, against a backdrop of discontent among the population (poverty, inequality, etc.). In addition, the security environment is deteriorating in the north of the country on the border with Mali and Burkina Faso where the danger of Islamist terrorism has intensified since the departure of foreign forces, albeit without threatening the country's territorial integrity.

In response, Côte d'Ivoire is seeking support from other states in the region, as well as from France and the US. Since 2017, a military cooperation and intelligence-sharing agreement has brought Yamoussoukro together with its neighbours (Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Togo). The French presence, which has a permanent military base in the country, remains an important security force despite a downsizing plan announced in June 2024, as does the USD 100 million in aid over 10 years granted by the US in March 2023. The two countries are also important economic partners (trade and investment).

Last updated : August 2024